HoopWatch

The Seattle Supersonics are coming off a disappointing 2005-06 season. They failed to make it to the playoffs after a giving the Spurs a hard time in a grueling six game series in the 2005 playoffs. The team, however, made a strong push towards the end of the regular season after firing coach Bob Weiss and replacing him with Bob Hill, and trading for Chris Wilcox and Earl Watson. Both have contributed heavily to the Sonics cause.

There isn’t much change in the line-up. The biggest change though is the ownership of the team. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz sold the team to Oklahoma City-based businessmen. And the team may be headed to Oklahoma in a year if there won’t be any new arena to house the Sonics. The Key Arena isn’t that appealing to them, it seems.

The Sonics depend a lot on their two superstars for firepower – Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Well, Allen is a dependable shooter, especially from behind the arc. He can also penetrate, and get those dunks. But he is aging as well. Lewis has to play a bigger role this year if the Sonics want to go back to post-season competition. And he has worked on his defense and ball-handling this pre-season. Thus, we expect him to handle to ball more, maybe a point forward at times. For the past seasons, his deadliest asset is his three-point shooting. He is a 6-10 player with deadly outside sniping. And now that he has improved his ball-handling skills, expect Bob Hill to instruct Lewis to penetrate more so as not to let the defense focus much on Allen. Allen has constantly been double-teamed the past season. Then he kicks the ball out to the shooters, Lewis and Luke Ridnour. It didn’t work enough though.

Lewis has also improved his post-up moves. Now that he is a better one-on-one player with his dribbling and low post moves, the Sonics will be a bit unpredictable. They don’t have to go Allen for each and every play. But they won’t succeed if these two won’t get much help from the other players. This is where Chris Wilcox and Earl Watson contributed heavily as soon as they were acquired. Chris Wilcox averaged 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds for the Sonics last season. He could be 20-10 player in no time if given heavier minutes. And Ridnour may lose that starting point guard job if Watson will continue to produce good numbers and will prove steadier. Much steadier indeed that Hill utilizes him in the fourth quarter till the end of the game.

I predict a regular nine-man rotation for the Sonics. Allen and Lewis are locked at the 2 and 3 positions. Ridnour will start at the point. Robert Swift, with his tenacious defense and shot blocking, will continue to start at 5. Swift is a regular 2 blocks a game guy. The 4 spot is a toss-up between Nick Collison and Wilcox. Collison has been groomed for the past three years to be the starting power forward. But with Wilcox posting those huge numbers, it is a no-brainer that Hill will start and give heavier minutes to Wilcox. Plus, Collison is foul-prone.

Earl Watson will come off the bench at the middle of the first. Expect Allen and Lewis to play really heavy minutes with Frenchman Mickael Gelabale to relieve either of them towards the end of the first or at the start of the second. Watson and Ridnour may play at the same time as well with the lack of a true back-up shooting guard.

Going back to Gelabale, He has been impressive during the recent World Championships. He is a 6-9 wingman, very athletic, can shoot the three, and a sound perimeter defender. He may become a star to claim the reins from Allen in the future. Then Collison and Johan Petro will be rotated at 4 and 5 with Wilcox and Swift. Petro can run up and down the floor like a guard, and has a good mid-range jumper. Damien Wilkins, Danny Fortson and rookie Denham Brown may play sparingly. It will depend on foul and injury situations.

But for the Sonics to be successful this year, the point guard and the center will need to contribute heavily. Lewis and Allen are expected to carry much of the offense, but they cannot do it the whole season. Ridnour has to shoot that three consistently, penetrate and pass it to a cutting Wilcox and Swift. The good thing about Wilcox is that he shoots a high 60% from the field, mostly on alley-hoops and dunks. Ridnour or Watson and Wilcox need to perfect their pass-to-dunk connections for the Sonics to get somewhere. This team may play the spoilers role, and is the ultimate sleeper team. They will make a push to make it to the eighth spot. Anything more than that will truly be unexpected, and an overachievement. (pics courtesy of yahoonba.com)