HoopWatch

The Denver Nuggets have catapulted themselves back to the playoffs immediately after acquiring Carmelo Anthony as the third overall pick in the 2003 draft. They have gotten out of the slump where they have been a lottery team for ages. The last time they went to the playoffs was when they were led by Dikembe Mutombo and Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf in the 90’s even beating a top seeded Gary Payton-led Seattle Supersonic team. Well, after that, the play-off period was vacation time for them. Not even stars Nick Van Exel, Raef Lafrentz and, ah yes, slam-dunking Antonio McDyess could pull off a postseason date. But Anthony, he did what those guys could not conceived. He led the Nuggets to the playoffs on his first year, teaming up with Andre Miller, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby. And they have become a regular play-off team since.

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Now they have another problem. They just can’t shake off any team in their path. They have been unable to win a first round series. Anthony, Camby, Martin and Miller each bring something unique to the table. They have been putting up impressive numbers. Anthony takes care of the scoring. Camby is a shot-blocking artist. Martin is a rebounding demon. Miller is an assist machine, and he gets a number of steals. So what do they lack? Aren’t these four enough to do the trick and make them advance to the second round? Plus, they even have a good bench led by Earl Boykins, a 5-5 guard, who shoots a lot and give their bench scoring a boost. Who’s lacking then?!Â

Well, a team’s starting five is composed of five players. Hence, the word starting five. Camby is the starting center, Anthony and Martin are the starting forwards and Miller is the starting point guard. Who then has been there starting two-guard, or shooting guard for the past three seasons?

They first tried Voshon Lenard, a 6-4 Miami Heat veteran. He is a shooter, but he is short for his position, and lacks the defensive skills to shut down the best guards in the league like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Lebron James, Manu Ginobili – to name a few. Then they tried DerMarr Johnson. Well, Johnson isn’t that much of a scorer and defender. Lastly, they acquired Ruben Patterson to fill that void, which he couldn’t coz he is more of a 6-5 small forward rather than a guard. This self-proclaimed Kobe-stopper can’t shoot that well as well. They so badly lack that shooting guard presence that Denver resorts to playing both Miller and Boykins at the same time most of the time. They even end games together.

This year they traded for J.R. Smith. Hopefully, Smith’s outside shooting will provide that shooting guard presence for the Nuggets. As a rookie for the New Orleans Hornet, he averaged more than ten points in just 24 minutes of play. They have been frustrated so many times before that other teams could easily play them. Other teams just shut down Anthony and Martin, who carries the bulk of the scoring load. They sagged towards them, daring the other Nuggets on the floor to shoot from the outside. Hopefully Smith could provide that outside shooting they badly need.

If Smith will be able to hit those threes that he is also good at, other teams may have to think twice on doubling Anthony or sagging to him. Smith could use his athleticism as well to drive to the hole, get that dunk, or pass to the cutters or outside shooters. If Smith is able to penetrate, he could create scoring opportunities for his teammates. The help defenders will definitely close down that lane when he penetrates leaving the other Nuggets open for a jump shot or a lay-up. This is also where his passing ability will improve or wither.

Smith will also be a forgotten man in the Nuggets offense during the start of the season that he may find himself open a lot of times for a three, a lay-up or even an offensive rebound and putback. He’s got to prove though that he is a definite threat!

Well, one other problem for Denver is the health of its big men. Last season Nene was out for the whole of it due to an ACL injury. Martin and Camby had both been missing tons of games due to injuries. Camby is a high-risk-high-return guy. High risk because he has been out for a significant number of games for the past (perhaps) eight seasons even during his New York days. High return because he can put up huge numbers in blocks and rebounds when he is healthy, plus he can score in double digits as well.

But management has addressed that probable situation by acquiring quality big men. They signed Reggie Evans, another rebounding demon, to a five-year multi-million contract. What triggered the Nuggets to sign him with this big money is his NBA-high 0.36 rebounds per minute. He is a highly efficient rebounder. The Nuggets also traded for Joe Smith, another good rebounder and defender.

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I predict a regular nine-to-ten-man rotation for the Nuggets, depending on the game situation. The starters are Camby, Martin, Anthony, J.R. Smith and Miller. Coming off the bench are Boykins, Nene, Joe Smith and Eduardo Najera. Oh yes, Najera! I just love this guy. We all know he could score. He is the leading scorer for the Mexican National team. But he does the intangibles for Denver – rebound, defend, get loose balls, defend, block shots, defend, steal possessions, defend, dive for loose balls and defend. Denver will also give playing time to Julius Hodge, a sophomore from North Carolina State. They will definitely try him especially if J.R. Smith will fail to provide from the two-guard spot. Though I doubt it since Hodge is more of a slasher than a shooter. Well, we’ll see. Reggie Evans may only find significant minutes if one of the Camby, Martin and Nene trio will go down. But he is the future for this team. Rookie guard/forward Yakhouba Diawara from Pepperdine will see limited action, and only in a few games.

The Nuggets success may depend on the production of J.R. Smith. He needs to hit those outside shots at a high clip for him to be effective. Although, we saw maturity and leadership in Anthony’s play in the World Championships. He will once again try to lead this team past the first round. But Smith is still the key. That two-guard void has to be filled up for them to advance further in the playoffs.

There won’t be much of a problem though if one big man gets injured. Evans and Joe Smith are more than willing to carry the production. Currently, Denver management is hoping that they will be able to land Bonzi Wells. If they do so, they may get past that first round. If they don’t, with their current line-up, I see them exactly back to where they were last playoffs, loosing in the first round. (pics courtesy of bballone.com)