HoopWatch

The Chicago Bulls took a major step (forward) during the off-season. They snagged three-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace from the Detroit Pistons. For a team that led the league in defensive field goal percentage, Wallace is a definite upgrade. Although in the process, they had to let go of a similar type of player in Tyson Chandler. But Chandler has been a disappointment and an underachiever the past seasons. He just has not lived up to expectations.

With Wallace, the Bulls appeared to be heading in the right direction. Look for them to give a lot of Eastern teams a hard time. They will definitely get past the first round this time. I expect them to get to the second round in the coming playoffs.

Wallace brings two things to the Bulls: greater defense and bad offense. Coach Scott Skiles must do a good job in hiding Wallace in offense, working to his strengths, which is rebounding. Expect Wallace to take a back seat in the Bulls offensive scheme. His job is to crash the boards after a Bull take a shot, for the possible offensive rebound and putback. Wallace has a 10.7 career rebounding average. Last year in Detroit, Wallace averaged 11.3 caroms a game.

Much of the Bulls offense will come from their guards, namely, Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich. Despite coming off the bench last season, Gordon averaged 17 points per game, while Hinrich, who had a break-out season, averaged 16 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 1.6 threes and 1.3 steals a game. Expect these two to increase their production this year. In Chicago’s slow down offense, they love to set screens for their two scoring options. Most of their bombs will come from the outside.

Their main concern though is their inside scoring. They just don’t have any low post threat from their big men. The bigs they added don’t have low post moves in Wallace, P.J. Brown, Michael Sweetney, Malik Allen and Victor Khryapa. All these bigs are blue-collared workers. They do the dirty things: they defend, they rebound, they fight for loose balls, they set-up screens and they provide the hustle on the floor.

And Brown is a reluctant scorer. When Jamaal Magloire got injured for a long stretch in New Orleans, it was anticipated that Brown would make-up for Magloire’s numbers. Instead, his numbers remained the same. Other Hornets like Baron Davis and David Wesley were the ones who stepped up to cover Magloire’s production. He has a career average of only 9.4 points per game, and it will stay that way or even decrease. His role would be to pluck those rebounds, and defend. He may not go for those putbacks as Wallace often does.

Such that the small forwards for this team will play a critical role if they are to advance in the playoffs. Their legitimate post-threat is in third-year man Luol Deng. Deng and Andres Nocioni will provide the much-needed offensive support for Gordon and Hinrich. Nocioni is good cutter and a better perimeter shooter. He showed some spunk in the last two playoffs scoring critical baskets. Skiles sometimes loves to use Nocioni and even Deng at the four spot. Expect them to do the same at times this season.
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Deng has a lot of upsides in his game. He can post-up, he can put the ball on the floor and drive to the hoop, and he can pull-up for a jumper. The problem with Deng, however, is he doesn’t know what to do what in what situation. He’s got the tools, but they need harnessing. Well, he is just 21, so expect him to improve over the next years. Maybe, not now though.

Skiles has a deep team, but still I anticipate a regular nine-man rotation for him. Wallace will start at center. Michael Sweetney will start as power forward. He has a good perimeter jumper, plays good defense and has good rebounding numbers. I don’t see any reason to start with Brown, since he plays similar to Wallace. It would be redundant. He will provide leadership off the bench. At least Sweetney can shoot perimeter jumpers. Nocioni will start at small forward. I know Gordon used to come off the bench for Skiles, but it will change this season. He will start with Hinrich at the backcourt.

Deng and Chris Duhon will provide the offensive punch off the bench. Brown and Khryapa will rotate at the five and four spots. I like Khryapa’s game. He can defend, snag rebounds, and hit that outside three. He could be Chicago’s offensive surprise this season. Adrian Griffin, Allen and rookie Tyrus Thomas will play sparingly. Skiles may want to use one of them at certain games, depending on the opponent and game scenarios. He may use ten men in such contests.

In Skiles’ defense-oriented strategy, the lack of inside scoring wouldn’t be much of a concern. Skiles is a brilliant coach and his Bulls have overachieved the past seasons. He utilizes the strengths of his players and covers-up their weaknesses. I don’t see them running the ball that much. They will slow down the pace each time. They don’t mind playing low-scoring games. In fact, the lower the output for both teams, and the lesser the possessions, the better chance for them to win. I see a lot of screens (screen-and-roll, screen-and-pop, double-screens-and-pop) and a lot of movement without the ball. I see them making that extra pass for the cutters. A lot of give-and-go’s are installed for this team. And their big men will clean up the mess for the offensive throw-down or a re-possession (re-setting-up the play).

And they will frustrate a lot of players with their outstanding defense! They will lead the defensive field goal percentage once again with Wallace and Brown around. They have long arms in the perimeter with Khryapa and Deng.

Thus, they will be a handful for the East, and even the West. They may need to jell a little. Expect them to be soaring high by mid-December at most. They may not make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, not yet. But definitely, they will get past the first round this season. (pics courtesy of nba.com)